Trading Places
As the governments of the developed world, including the U.S., inch toward cap and trade mechanisms to cover the gamut of carbon emitting activities, I find myself mulling over the possibilities for implementing such a scheme for driving a car. Under a cap and trade system, the government (or collection of governments) “caps” or establishes a limit on the amount of offending behavior that is legally allowed, and then allocates or auctions off permits granting permission to engage in such offending behavior. The permits can then be bought and sold on the open market. Companies that reduce their level of offensive activity stand to profit by selling their excess permits to companies that choose not to reduce such behavior. Cap and trade schemes are most often associated with large industrial polluters, which are subject to limits on the amount of harmful pollutants that can be emitted and must buy permits if their emissions exceed legal limits. The beauty of a cap and trade system for driving is that if drivers were forced to buy the right to drive on the open market, they would lose that myopic entitlement attitude that stymies any attempts to reduce driving and the resulting congestion and sprawl. And, like season ticket holders who cash in during the playoffs, conscientious drivers would actually be rewarded through the sale of their excess “driving capacity.”
Practical considerations have, until recently, prevented serious discussion of a cap and trade system for car driving. This is unfortunate. No other alternative so radically transforms the perception of driving for car owners. I’m a big supporter of increasing the gas tax, but, in my opinion, the gas tax is still a crude form of behavior modification whose primary advantage is its simplicity (which is not an insignificant consideration). My primary complaint about a gas tax is this: as long as drivers are willing to allocate more of their personal income to driving, a gas tax doesn’t fundamentally change behavior. Drivers are still able to earn their way out of the penalty for driving. Toll roads have more similarities to cap and trade than a gas tax, because of the ability to limit the amount of available road space. Toll roads, however, only work on highways, and don’t provide any incentive for people to limit their car use. Car owners, of course, are free to tax themselves through the voluntary purchase offsets to match the carbon output from their driving. But my suspicion is that the current purchasers of such offsets are already a fairly committed bunch. They’ve already made efforts to reduce their driving or have switched to more fuel efficient vehicles. The real culprits on the road are immune to such voluntary measures.
Driving is the only form of long haul transportation that isn’t subject to the unsympathetic whims of the market. The market for airline travel is the perfect counterpoint to our dysfunctional attitude toward driving. When it comes to driving, we are lemmings, impervious to insults to our dignity and threats to our pocketbooks. Yet, as air travelers, we are sophisticated consumers, acutely aware of daily price changes and bargains. We search for the best deals, access all available information, and play competitors against one another, and the result is a complex sorting of price sensitivities that keeps the airlines on their toes (and on the brink of insolvency). The bottom line is: if the price is too high, we don’t fly. And while air travel might look like simply a private market at work, it is really a form of cap and trade, with the government indirectly regulating the capacity of the system through gates, air traffic restrictions and a range of regulations that serve as significant obstacles for new entrants.
The practical barriers to tracking how much we drive are slowly disappearing. Oregon recently completed a pilot program to substitute a mileage tax for the gas tax, and installed devices in participating cars that tracked mileage. The devices also included GPS capabilities for subtracting out-of-state miles for the tax calculation. Many new cars are already GPS-enabled, and automakers are likely to make the technology standard on all vehicles in the future. Cruder measures, such as limits on vehicle licenses, are also available to implement the system. With advances in technology, the only obstacles are once again political.
The problems associated with driving a car are the result of an age old conundrum known as the tragedy of the commons, in which individuals, absent any restrictions or cost burden, will overuse a public resource to the point where it ceases to be of benefit to anyone. Relying on the market to allocate the precious resources of "the commons" is as old as the puzzle itself. Yet, we ignore this wisdom and continue to allow people to overuse their driving privileges. It's time to turn drivers into consumers. It's time to let the market take over our roads.

Comments
Great post! I love it when you can marry hard-headed market-driven economic policy with your desire to have us all drive less. Just curious, how does congestion pricing fit into a scheme like this? Is it more like a gas tax or more like cap and trade?
Posted by: Jeff Singer | May 16, 2007 11:43 AM
I'm a fan of congestion pricing as well, but it is still basically a tax. Since the volume of traffic isn't fixed, any driver can still buy his way in. Now imagine if the volume was fixed, and in order to drive into downtown, another driver would have to forgo using his or her car. That would create an interesting dynamic.
Posted by: Patrick | May 16, 2007 2:18 PM
This is fascinating stuff, and I think you should explore the details of how such a system would work in a future post. Here are some practical questions to address:
1) how do you allocate the intitial amount of allowable driving (i.e. does everyone who buys/owns a car get an allowance)?
2) how do you determine what the total amount of allowable driving should be (i.e. what is the "cap" set at and why)?
3) and if you auction off the right to go over the cap, couldn't people still "buy their way in" and therefore you still won't "fundamentally change behavior" because people can still allocate more of their disposable income to driving more, just like they would with a gas tax?
Posted by: Jeff Singer | May 17, 2007 7:43 AM